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中国公路学报
CHINA JOURNAL OF HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORT
2006 Vol.19 No.6 P.92-96,101

数字化期刊

环境承载力约束条件下城市最大乘用车保有量预测

杨忠振  苗国强  冯涛 

摘 要:以城市环境承载力为约束条件预测城市内可容纳的最大乘用车保有量.预测模型是一个双层优化问题,其中上层是环境承载力约束下的最大乘用车保有量模型,以交通小区的乘用车保有量之和最大为目标函数,以各路段的环境承载力为约束条件;下层是道路网上的用户平衡分配模型,模拟乘用车出行者的路径选择行为,预测交通需求在道路网上的分布及行驶特征.开发了一个基于灵敏度分析的算法用于实现上下层模型间的反馈及同时求解两个优化问题.利用实例验证了模型及算法的有效性.
关键词:交通工程;乘用车保有量;双重规划模型;交通环境承载力;交通量分配;灵敏度分析
分类号:U491.14  文献标识码:A

文章编号:1001-7372(2006)06-0092-05

Forecast on Maximum Car Ownership with Constraint of Environmental Capacity in Urban

YANG Zhong-zhen  MIAO Guo-qiang  FENG Tao 

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(50422282)
作者简介:杨忠振(1964-),男,辽宁凌海人,教授,博士生导师,工学博士,E-mail:yangzhongzhen@263.net.
作者单位:杨忠振(大连海事大学,交通工程与物流学院,辽宁,大连,116026) 
     苗国强(大连海事大学,交通工程与物流学院,辽宁,大连,116026) 
     冯涛(广岛大学,大学院国际协力研究科,东广岛,镜山,739-8529) 

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收稿日期:2006年2月18日

出版日期:2006年11月30日

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