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中国公路学报
CHINA JOURNAL OF HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORT
2006 Vol.19 No.5 P.108-113

数字化期刊

基于运力均衡与运量转移的公路货运运力结构预测

何杰  李旭宏  杭文  毛海军 

摘 要:针对传统公路货运运力结构趋势预测以及区域车辆结构均衡预测中不考虑总运量和单件重型货物运量分辟的预测方法存在的不足,提出了通过对分轮轴类型的公路货运车辆载质量谱的调查,荻取基年车辆吨位的累积概率函数,并使用Logit模型对计划年公路货物总运量以及计划年载质量法规和超限严格管制力度改变情景下的单件重型货物运量进行转移预测,建立计划年单件货物质量概率分布函数,在此基础上基于运力均衡的理论建立计划年不同吨位车辆运力的求解模型.
关键词:公路运输经济;货运运力结构;理论分析;运力均衡;运量转移;载质量谱
分类号:F540.8  文献标识码:A

文章编号:1001-7372(2006)05-0108-06

Highway Truck Conveyance Configuration Forecasting Based on Conveyance Equilibrium and Freight Diversion

HE Jie  LI Xu-hong  HANG Wen  MAO Hai-jun 

基金项目:世界银行贷款项目(P076714)
作者简介:何杰(1973-),男,安徽潜山人,副教授,工学博士,E-mail:hejie@seu.edu.cn.
作者单位:何杰(东南大学,交通学院,江苏,南京,210096) 
     李旭宏(东南大学,交通学院,江苏,南京,210096) 
     杭文(东南大学,交通学院,江苏,南京,210096) 
     毛海军(东南大学,交通学院,江苏,南京,210096) 

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收稿日期:2005年11月15日

出版日期:2006年9月30日